tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8315800702456920632024-03-14T15:38:14.976-04:00The World ComplexInterweaving threads from science, politics, economics, and history.mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.comBlogger677125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-40122733176363566582023-09-06T10:52:00.004-04:002023-09-06T10:52:49.154-04:00Open Access Government article goes liveAn article I wrote for Open Access has now gone live.
I've just noticed some big changes in google blogging
mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-62314630629991861342023-05-19T15:33:00.003-04:002023-05-29T21:40:54.814-04:00Your post titled "Deconstructing algos, part 4: Phase space reconstructions of CNTY busted trades suggests high speed gang-bangs in the market" has been put behind a warning for readers Hello, As you may know, our Community Guidelines (https://blogger.com/go/contentpolicy) describe the boundaries for what we allow-- and don't allow-- on Blogger. Your post titled "Deconstructing algos, part 4: Phase space reconstructions of CNTY busted trades suggests high speed gang-bangs in the market" was flagged to us for review. This post was put behind a warning for mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-74924180265677889742020-08-05T17:10:00.002-04:002020-08-05T17:19:06.161-04:00The inflationary hyperloop and other tales from the near futureLast time we looked at the recent transition from deflation to inflation as revealed in the USDX vs gold chart. This time I would like to put this into a somewhat larger perspective.This chart compares the US dollar index with the gold price over the last 12+ years. The overall effect has been one of deflation (both gold and the dollar index have risen over that period), but the effect has not mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-76852675267451165842020-07-27T22:30:00.000-04:002020-07-27T22:30:29.187-04:00A sharp transition from deflation to inflationToday's chart is the US dollar index vs gold over the last two years (actually the last 94 weeks, which is not quite two years).We have discussed why deflation and inflation are not opposites on this graph previously.Here we see a sharp transition from deflation to inflation, occurring within a week of May 15 (two months ago). Note that deflation is the best condition for gold companies, in mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-69144599650390443322020-05-31T23:41:00.001-04:002020-05-31T23:42:12.781-04:00A global pandemic is too dangerous to leave the experts in charge, part 1As I write I have been in some form of lockdown for about two months, having resisted it for the first couple of weeks. I kept commuting into the office until the very end of March, before retreating to Newmarket and hanging out there for the past couple of months.I still have had to use public transit to commute to my dialysis centre. The lengthy commute increases my risk level, but I am mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-9030641406268690802020-05-16T11:26:00.003-04:002020-05-31T23:06:19.910-04:00The gold-copper ratio and the real economy
A couple of months ago when the turmoil began, I had one of these articles in Zerohedge, and I referred to the how the gold-copper ratio reflected what was going on in the real economy. Of course, commenters rose to the bait, asking what I meant by the real economy.
So today's post is an annotated graph of the weekly gold-copper ratio plotted against its smoothed rate of change, over the past mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-27544834421721569362020-03-27T03:40:00.003-04:002020-03-27T03:43:21.302-04:00Journal of the Plague Year - Let the Sun Shine in, the Sun Shine in
It's good for you. Not just for the Vitamin D.
mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-37836613702194713092020-03-24T17:28:00.000-04:002020-03-24T17:28:07.049-04:00Violence! Death! Blood! Gold! Copper!
Let's check on the chaos in the market.
The chaos is proceeding splendidly. It will be some time before order can be restored.
First of all. I have to rescind my predictions of this post. As I stated in the post, it was early to make a prognostication, but the violence of the earlier move convinced me to make one anyway. That move has reversed sharply, blasting out of the deflationary mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-34651699551319443822020-03-20T17:43:00.000-04:002020-03-20T17:43:50.978-04:00New charts - northern hemisphere Arctic sea ice maxima
A recent publication has highlighted the importance of the maximum extent of seasonal ice cover in the Arctic Ocean to the stability of the over all sea-ice system. So I have acquired data from NOAA of the daily sea ice extent since 1979, which I have used to find the maximum annual extent and the date (expressed as a Julian Day - so March 1, 2019 would be day 60, but March 1, 2020 would be daymickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-41324821909123725842020-03-16T17:19:00.000-04:002020-03-16T17:25:00.918-04:00Journal of the Plague Year - part 1: Chinese ex-girlfriend oracle says "Situation cloudy"
Here I am, watching myself for Covid-19 symptoms, having braved the crowds of PDAC earlier in the month. I only went on the Sunday, but there were plenty of opportunities for mingling with crowds, particularly during the reception at the Peruvian exhibit, the Argentinian exhibit, the Chilean exhibit, and the Brasilien exhibit (not to mention repeatedly visiting their coffee machine, which was onmickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-70977651761950705962020-03-11T23:40:00.001-04:002020-03-11T23:49:18.821-04:00The possible coexistence of inflation and deflation
One comment came up a lot in the recent posting. Well, the comments were all on Zerohedge. Which was to dispute my conclusion of a switch to an inflationary setting.
In the biggest picture, we have had deflation for at least the past twelve years.
Sorry, haven't updated this one in the past few months. But on this scale, very little has changed. The long-term trend of rising gold pricemickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-44548148205661919582020-03-07T12:15:00.000-05:002020-03-07T12:15:47.896-05:00Brace for impact
What a week we just had in the precious metals market.
From a huge drop last Friday--which in the past would have presaged further declines the following week--to a significant rebound in the gold price, coupled this time with a major drop in the US dollar--which I will argue may be the signal for a switch to inflationary conditions.
First the chart
We see the nice deflationary trend of mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-14562334176223330342020-02-24T17:12:00.000-05:002020-02-24T17:12:46.506-05:00I read the news today, oh boy
Things are happening quickly, but I've been tied up with various health maintenance issues and have not been able to keep up. It would help if I could sleep, but that has been beyond my reach for most of the past week. Since multistability is in the purview of this blog, we may consider consciousness to have several metastable equilibrium states, some of which lie in the realm of sleep, and somemickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-14170732776065696702020-02-14T17:22:00.000-05:002020-02-14T17:53:00.730-05:00The Gold-Silver Ratio
For Valentine's Day, a little something for you who love silver.
Or gold
A couple of weeks ago, Wheaton Precious Metals released a very useful study on the gold-silver ratio. Today I would like to take a look at some of its implications.
The most important implication is one that everyone needs a little time to absorb. That is that there is no characteristic value for the gold-silver ratio.
mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-80210748688681988662020-02-05T22:39:00.001-05:002020-02-05T22:40:37.829-05:00The colour is blue at the Aga Khan Museum
The Aga Khan is the head of a small, but wealthy, subset of Shia Islam.
He is known for charitable works around the world. Today's topic is about one of these, the Aga Khan Museum in Toronto. I had decided to visit late last year when I became aware of an exhibit based on trade in West Africa during the Medieval Era. I had been interested in this topic since the company I worked for at the timemickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-74526146224284843702020-01-20T17:19:00.000-05:002020-01-20T17:19:11.009-05:00Another exciting adventure in the US medical system
Well, perhaps not so exciting.
I was in Washington a couple of weeks ago for the AGU Chapman conference on the East Asian Monsoon. My trip there was long enough that I needed a dialysis session, which I had tentatively arranged through Fresenius. I had identified a clinic near the conference, and had received word that they would schedule me in for either the Tuesday or the Wednesday that mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-40974672319369534322020-01-18T03:31:00.000-05:002020-01-18T03:31:01.920-05:00The History of the East Asia Monsoon
So I went to Washington DC last week for the AGU Chapman Conference on the East Asian monsoon. I found it to be a very rewarding conference, and even learned a bit about navigating around Washington on transit, as I was on a limited budget.
The conference was in AGU headquarters, which is near to Dupont Circle.
Not all that far from the Mall, although I didn't visit this time.
mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-75007493680220325442019-12-11T19:33:00.000-05:002019-12-11T19:33:33.160-05:00A year of deflation was pretty good for gold miners
I have been showing the long-term graph of US dollar index vs gold for some time, arguing that the last twelve years have, on average, been deflationary.
Since early 2008, the gold price has risen from ~900USD per oz to nearly 1500 USD/oz, whereas the US dollar index has risen from about 72 to nearly 98. Richard Russell seems to have been right, with his bet of 50% gold and 50% US dollars.
mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-19804571544517575852019-12-08T21:40:00.001-05:002019-12-08T21:40:56.536-05:00Gold x USDX has a convincing breakout in phase space
I'm getting back into the swing of phase space reconstructions in preparation for next month's presentation in Washington
Something we have been going through for some time.
Gold x USDX (the product of gold the gold price and the US dollar index) broke out in the summer of 2019 (similar to this post) in most convincing fashion. As we speak, the trajectory of the system has moved away from any mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-61673529423989152722019-11-28T19:44:00.000-05:002019-11-28T20:00:54.821-05:00Help me cross the square
The wind rises, and the days grow short.
In a trench is a group of men. They sit together, but each is alone in his thoughts.
Happier times in the public market? Performing on the sports field? Father swinging the scythe in the wheatfield? Your wife? Your children?
You are going to die. You know this. You are among the last holdouts as the Bolsheviks destroy all resistance throughout Russia.mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-21276452991516157312019-10-18T21:04:00.001-04:002019-10-18T21:04:35.185-04:00The church-sale indicator tells me that silver is at a significant low
Every spring and fall the neighbourhood church has a rummage sale. Parishioners donate used goods, which are sold to benefit the church (although this year, the beneficiary seems to be a separate charity). In past years I have bought books and games for the kids, books for me, and once some jigsaw puzzles when my wife's aunt came for a long visit from Singapore.
About twenty years ago, I had mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-31915209795750480672019-10-06T17:45:00.000-04:002019-10-06T17:46:43.874-04:00Abstract accepted to Chapman conference on the Evolution of the Monsoon
https://www.agu.org/chapmans-asian-monsoons
So I'll be going to Washington in the New Year.
No word yet on the format of the presentation.
I've never taken part in a Chapman conference before, but I gather they are rather more collaborative than typical conferences
mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-65951181900259737042019-09-27T22:33:00.001-04:002019-09-27T22:33:33.477-04:00We have passed this year's Arctic sea ice minimum
and what do we see?
This site informs us that we have tied with 2007 and 2016 for the second lowest sea ice extent in the satellite era--4.15 million sq km.
This gives us the wherewithal to update our phase space reconstruction of the sea ice extent.
We are near the middle of the same area of metastability we have been in since 2007. There is no way to tell how long we shall continue in mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-6054800136568967012019-08-09T12:44:00.001-04:002019-08-09T12:44:49.952-04:00Human ingenuity and gold
I saw the figure below on this website, and felt compelled to comment.
No attribution was given, so I will assume it was put together by the site operator.
At first glance, it tells a simple (if somewhat horrifying) story of currency destruction. But I think there is another story it tells, which is a little more hopeful.
The picture as presented is a little misleading because it shows mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-831580070245692063.post-19040097653417578562019-07-22T13:14:00.000-04:002019-07-22T13:18:21.115-04:00The changing face of deflation
As noted previously, the shared global economic system has been dominated by deflation for the past eleven years. Evidence for this can be seen in the chart of US dollar index vs gold price since 2008 (below).
Since 2008, the US dollar has risen about 35%, whereas the gold price (in US dollars) has risen over 50%. At the current level, where goldxUSDX approaches the 1400 isoquant, non-US mickeymanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05294892836443576042noreply@blogger.com0