This could be another Hallowe'en special.
The monthly chart shows a noticeable break, caused by the breakdown in oil price. How far it will fall is anyone's guess. Probably it will take the S&P 500 down with it at some point--maybe through losses in all those oil companies that are heavily dependent on fracking and a high oil price.
Once we reach bottom though, we ought to have a pretty nice bull run in both oil and the broader market.
I can hear your objections. Someone will point out that those waves of "growth" over the past ten+ years are just the result of Fed inflation. Furthermore, that someone will say that the Fed has shot all of its bolts and they will never be able to engineer inflation again. These statements will be amplified with opinions about Fed incompetence. It's a story I've heard a lot over the last ten (and more) years. I've even voiced similar opinions myself. I've come to realize that they are competent--the reason they seem incompetent is because what they are really doing is different from what they say they are doing.
The monthly chart shows a noticeable break, caused by the breakdown in oil price. How far it will fall is anyone's guess. Probably it will take the S&P 500 down with it at some point--maybe through losses in all those oil companies that are heavily dependent on fracking and a high oil price.
Once we reach bottom though, we ought to have a pretty nice bull run in both oil and the broader market.
I can hear your objections. Someone will point out that those waves of "growth" over the past ten+ years are just the result of Fed inflation. Furthermore, that someone will say that the Fed has shot all of its bolts and they will never be able to engineer inflation again. These statements will be amplified with opinions about Fed incompetence. It's a story I've heard a lot over the last ten (and more) years. I've even voiced similar opinions myself. I've come to realize that they are competent--the reason they seem incompetent is because what they are really doing is different from what they say they are doing.
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