Dust flux, Vostok ice core

Dust flux, Vostok ice core
Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).

Sunday, January 30, 2011

Sierra Leone not ready for foreign investment

A client of mine in Sierra Leone has just had two mineral concessions taken away for what are reportedly to be purely arbitrary reasons.

As the situation is still murky, it would be wise to reconsider investments in companies working in Sierra Leone. Companies such as African Minerals, with their gigantic Tonkolili iron deposit (and smaller Marampa mine) and Cluff Resources, with their Baomahun deposit, may be forced to reconsider the level of investments they will make to further the development of their respective properties.

More on this as developments proceed.

Friday, January 28, 2011

Identification of stone artifacts in coastal Ghana

Some months ago I posted some photograph of some interesting stone artifacts found in shallow offshore gravels in Ghana.

Here is one of those photos again.


A recent article in Wessex Archaeology's Dredged Up from the Past shows a similar stone found by a dredging operation. One of their more in-depth publications described the stone bead as a weight for a fishing net. Considering how common thrown-net fishing still is in Ghana, the fact that all of these were found offshore supports this hypothesis for the Ghanaian stones. 

Monday, January 24, 2011

Science—the new frontier for State aggression in the geopolitical age part 2: State aggression against individuals

Our last installment dealt with state aggression against other states. Today's installment will introduce the incredibly vast topic of state aggression against individual rights, a topic covered by numerous sites including Pro Libertate, Lew Rockwell, and others too numerous to list.

The most difficult problem facing the individual victim of state aggression--particularly in democracies--is the sense that any resistance is illegitimate. The problem is commonly worsened by the fact that the State will often refer to some scientific evidence as "proof" that you need protection from some entity or action. Opponents to State policies are, therefore, irrational as well as illegitimate.

The following is a partial list of State policies which are backed by scientific studies, against which any protest is considered both irrational and illegitimate:

Fluouridation of drinking water (in North America)
Composition of the food pyramid
Global warming
Mass vaccination of children
Approval of aspartame
Encouragement of statin drugs
Widespread use of dental mercury fillings
Use of fiat currency
Approval of GM foods

The discussions below are really brief and are not intended to be full treatments of the subject matter.

Fluoridation of water

The fluoridation of water has been proposed to reduce cavities in populations. Opposition to the fluoridation of water is based on ethical grounds (the difficulty for individuals to opt out of the program, lack of informed consent, and the lack of control over dosage); efficacy (it is proposed that fluoride should be applied topically to teeth rather than being ingested); and on health grounds (ingesting fluoride may be unhealthy).

Many Western Europoean countries oppose fluoridation of water for the reasons listed above.

The position taken by typical health officials in North America is reflected in this statement by the former Medical Officer of Health of the City Waterloo, "Every reputable scientific authority throughout the entire world strongly advocates the addition of fluoride to the water." Such a statement is tailor-made to discredit any attempt to oppose the concept of fluoridation.

By contrast, the statements made in position documents of DVGW in Germany question the above statement. They do not specifically discount the effect of fluoride on cavities, but do argue that the additional possible medical, ethical, and environmental costs of fluoridation cannot be justified. 

Food pyramid

I remember reading an article many years ago in which a Canadian nutritional researcher stated she was forced out of her position because she claimed that the food pyramid did not reflect the actual nutritionists' advice, but was largely shaped by commercial interests. Unfortunately, I have been unable to find this story again--it is gone into the memory hole.

There are articles by Dr. W. Willett of the Harvard School of Public Health arguing for substantial modifications to the food pyramid, including reducing grains and increasing the amount of fats (albeit plant oils) in the recommended diet.

Global warming

I hardly even want to talk about this one. Suffice to say there is a tremendous amount of emotionally charged debate on both sides and ridicule for anyone who dares contradict official pronouncements. Do your own due diligence.

Mass vaccination of children

The number of different vaccinations recommended for children has ballooned over the past several years.

Each of the new proposed vaccines has one or more scientific studies supporting it. Each vaccine, in isolation, may provide a benefit with a reasonably low risk. What is less well-known is the cumulative effects of the large number of vaccines that very young children receive.

In addition, there are reasons to oppose this increase in vaccination. Such arguments include (but are not limited to) the effects of mercury-based preservatives on neurological development; the relationship between vaccination and autism (which may have been refuted); the serious side effects of the flu vaccine, among others; and the effects on the developing immune system of a massive wave of vaccinations.

Approval of aspartame

Aspartame is one of the most widely used artificial sweeteners on the market, yet its original approval for commercial use by the FDA was heavily contested. Searle (now part of Monsanto) won the day thanks to Donald Rumsfeld's influence, who some say should have a metabolic disorder named in his honour.

In the early 1990's, lab technicians at the lab above mine at University of Toronto reported that rats showed terrible toxic responses to moderate doses of aspartame. One day one of the grad students at the lab in question told me that they had been threatened with immediate loss of all research funding unless they stopped working on aspartame.

Statin drugs

Statins are used to reduce cholesterol. In your blood tests, cholesterol is divided into two types; the high-density lipoproteins (HDL) and the low-density lipoproteins (LDL). Simplistically, HDL is referred to as "good" cholesterol and LDL is "bad".

Even within the "bad cholesterol" there are two distinct types--pattern A, which consists of larger and less dense LDL particles, and pattern B, consisting of smaller and denser LDL particles. Of the two, only pattern B is associated with elevated risk of coronary disease, but the cholesterol blood test is unable to distinguish between the two.

Doctors normally recommend any patient with elevated LDL to take statins. The actual level of LDL that is considered to be elevated has fallen over the past decade, meaning that the number of people recommended for statin therapy has similarly increased. But simple blood tests are unable to distinguish between pattern A and pattern B LDL, so patients are asked to risk serious side effects to take a drug that may not actually be necessary.

Science and public policy

As I mentioned above, once a public policy is backed by science, it becomes illegitimate to protest it. What makes this dynamic particularly troubling is that there is a reinforcing dynamic between government and research labs whereby the labs are encouraged through receipt of government funding to produce results which favour government policy. Additionally, certain large industrial interests also fund research which favours usage of their products (whether they be agricultural, pharmaceutical, or military).

Even if researchers begin to produce results at odds with the scientific consensus, it can be difficult to bring about lasting change.

Update: January 25

Here is another article that makes the same point

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Determining scale invariance in geological phenomena

One concept which is quite familiar to geologists (even though it isn't often explicitly stated) is the concept of scale invariance. The way in which this point is frequently hammered home is through the requirement of a scale in a geological photograph. The reason that a scale is required (this need not be a literal measurement--frequently it is an object of known scale, like a shoe, a person, a rock hammer, a coin, or a house) is because many geological phenomena occur across a wide range of scales.

The picture at left is a perfect example. I found it on the internet years ago, and actually now I can't remember what it is. I have no idea if this is a close-up of the beach with a field of view of under a metre, or whether it is an aerial photograph, because features that look like those at left can occur at all of those scales.

The recognition of scale invariance in natural phenomena is not new. Benford's Law, an empirical relationship first noted by Newcomb whereby the first non-zero digit of a measurement is more likely to be 1 than 9 (30% vs 4.5%) is now understood to arise as a consequence of scale invariance.

Benford's Law only holds if the size range of the features measured spans several orders of magnitude (i.e., it does not apply to human heights).

Although scale invariance is inferred from the need for scales, obtaining the actual proof that geological phenomena are scale invariant is not easy. The reason for this is that the scale of observations available to the typical geologist is very limited.

The majority of geologists deal with rocks in outcrop, or (worse) sections of rocks obtained by drilling. In some parts of Canada, we have it pretty easy, as outcrops are frequently substantial. But in many places, most of the rock is covered in swamps, lakes, talus, mud and sands, or is inaccessible for other reasons. In such places, individual outcrops might only be a few metres across. Assuming a certain amount of weathering, it may be very difficult to identify very small features. You may only be able to observe features like fractures, or folds, across one or two orders of magnitude. This is not sufficient to determine scale invariance.


The photo above shows a number of olistoliths (two are outlined in red), which are pieces of material incorporated into a landslide that happened in the past. The olistoliths and the surrounding material were all soft (mud and sand) at that time--they are rock now. Some of the olistoliths in the photo are laminated, and these lamina are deformed somewhat, testifying to the stresses that these olistoliths underwent during their emplacement. The hammer is there for a scale. Photo is of the Gowganda Formation, near Whitefish Falls, Ontario.

In the photo above, the largest olistolith is about five times bigger than the smallest observed.


Here are olistoliths observed on the split face of a piston core sample from the Nova Scotia continental slope, collected in early 1987. The sediment is unconsolidated (still mud). The scale is at the bottom of the photo, measured in cm. These olistoliths are smaller than the ones in the Gowganda Formation, but still pretty much the same order of magnitude.

Smaller features are potentially visible in core, but they can't get much larger before they get difficult to identify. If the olistolith above were about 30x bigger than the one's that are present, in the core they would look like a separate layer, rather than an olistolith. Again, it is difficult to infer the scale-invariant nature of olistoliths from only these observations.

How do we see larger features in marine sediments? We have to go to geophysical imaging methods, and the two most common are seismic profiling and sidescan sonar.


The above profile is one I worked on in the late 1980s, although it had been collected some years earlier by the Geological Survey of Canada. The image has been vertically exaggerated, so that the space beween each of the tick marks at the extreme right of the image represents 10 m, whereas the length of the image is about 4000 m. There are a few debris flows interpreted to be in the image, two of which have been labelled. They are fairly large, compared to the photographs we have of olistoliths, and it would be reasonable to presume that there are large olistoliths within these debris flows. Unfortunately olistoliths do not show up on seismic profiles, so we don't know.


Not too bad. This is something similar--a pile of material that slipped downslope (that thing that looks a little like a footprint just left of centre of the photo). From the Gaskiers Formation (of Neoproterozoic age) outcrop on Little Colinet Island, southern Newfoundland, taken in 1995. I wouldn't quite call this an olistolith, but it is close.

It would seem the only way to confirm the existence of larger olistoliths is by studying very large outcrops with excellent exposure. These are generally rare, but below we'll take a look at two of them: the Smalfjord Formation in Arctic Norway, and the Yakataga Formation in the Gulf of Alaska.

Neoproterozoic diamictites of the Smalfjord Formation, northern Norway.
 The light-grey areas represent rafts of sediment carried downslope in debris flows.
The red blotch at lower left is a person crouched over taking notes.

The sedimentary blocks in the Smalfjord Formation are pretty large. The ones in this picture appear to be about 2 m thich and perhaps 10 m in length.

1500-m section of the Miocene-to-Recent Yakataga Formation near Icy 
Bay, southern Alaska, taken in 1989.



Outcrop on the scale of the image above may be what the doctor (that's me) ordered.

Exposure of Yakataga Formation at Icy Bay, Alaska, showing a submarine canyon and a series of olistoliths. Overall section here is about 1500 m in height, making the largest olistolith some 200 m in length. Original photo from an N. Eyles paper (trying to figure out which one).

We can demonstrate directly that there is a wide variety of sizes of olistoliths, but we have a hard time doing it from a single outcrop.

At this point we don't know anything about the size-frequency distribution--a topic we'll come to another time.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Captain Bernanke and the Black Hole of Negative Real Interest Rates

I hear Disney is finally remaking "The Black Hole". If so I have a few suggestions for slight alterations to the cast and plot to bring the movie up to date.

In this version of the movie our heroes find a vast, derelict ship, the US Economy, locked in orbit around a massive black hole. Although the ship appears to be dead, it soon comes to some form of life thanks to Quantiative Easing.

 The US Economy drifting around the black hole of negative real interest rates.

Our heroes land aboard the US Economy and make their way to the bridge, which they find under the ship crewed by zombie banks under the command of Captain Bernanke.

 Captain Bernanke and one of his crewmembers.

Captain Bernanke's right hand man is a robot, the lethal Geithnertron.

"I've heard enough! Geithnertron! Bring me the heart of Ron Paul!"

Our heroes are astonished to hear that Captain Bernanke intends to pilot the US Economy right through the black hole. Their protests that the ship will be destroyed by the incredible deflationary pressures are dismissed by Captain Bernanke, who has been developing new economic theories over the past twenty years and is now determined to show the power of Keynesian economics.

"The deflationary pressures will destroy the US Economy before you cross the event horizon!"
"Our engines can generate enough QE to counteract any deflationary stresses."

Captain Bernanke believes that once the US Economy passes through the black hole, it will pass through into a new Universe of Limitless Possibilities.

"My theory produces a desirable result; therefore it must be true!"

Eventually our heroes uncover the uncomfortable truth about the zombie banks.

"Oh my God! There's nothing in here but non-performing mortgages!"

Captain Bernanke tries to make them into zombie banks as well!

Zombification via deadly TARP rays.

Our heroes must attempt to escape before the US Economy plummets into the black hole. The ship is pummeled relentlessly by meteorites, and segments of the ship give way.

"There goes the Unemployment data!" (graph from BLS data, explanation here).

With their own ship destroyed, and the US Economy collapsing around them, our heroes search for a lifeboat. Luckily, they have a little gold stored. They suffer intense criticism from financial commentators in the media for their faith, but fight their way through.


"We got our gold. Let's get out of here!"

Unfortunately they too close to escape and are forced to go through the black hole.



The US Economy begins to break up.

In the final (much-debated) metaphysical sequence, we see what happens to Captain Bernanke and Geithnertron after passing through the black hole. They are united into one being, left standing atop a mountain, surrounded by the zombie banks (one presumes for eternity).

Bernanke, Geithnertron, and the zombie banks, surrounded by the 
fires of Hell, fueled by the endless burning of paper.

Our heroes, however, protected from deflationary pressures by gold, enter the Universe of Limitless Possibilities.



- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Negative real interest rates refers to the difference between a popular interest rate (say the 3 month Treasury rate) and the inflation rate (normally CPI, but better to use some measure of real inflation).