As we have seen before, for most of the last sixteen years, the state space defined by the plot of the gold/copper ratio against the silver/rough-rice ratio has been confined to one area (the yellow oval below), with the exception of a few short events: the crash in commodities in 2008/2009 (lasting four months) and 2006-7 when both silver and copper climbed strongly (nearly two years).
What now appears to be the longest and most extensive excursion in phase space has occurred in the last two years. Since the breakout from the yellow area in early 2010, the state has meandered towards the right. Both gold and copper have risen, as has silver. It is looking more and more like some form of transition rather than a simple excursion.
What now appears to be the longest and most extensive excursion in phase space has occurred in the last two years. Since the breakout from the yellow area in early 2010, the state has meandered towards the right. Both gold and copper have risen, as has silver. It is looking more and more like some form of transition rather than a simple excursion.
I've never seen the use of a silver / rough-rice ratio... is this something in common use that I've been oblivious to? Can you link any historical commentary on the use of such a ratio?
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I have not seen the use of this ratio either--I chose it as representative of the metals/soft commodities. I happened to have the record of trades for rice, but was too lazy to get the wheat data, and the cocoa data was too strongly influenced by the troubles in Cote d'Ivoire.
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