Dust flux, Vostok ice core

Dust flux, Vostok ice core
Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Unemployment-non M1 M2 rate of growth state space enters a new area of stability

Much to the detriment of the US population.

The plot shows the unemployment rate (the same data as used here, here, and here) plotted against the rate of annualized growth of weekly non M1 M2 money (data previously used here).

The result is a two dimensional state space. The system state has spent most of the time since early 2000 in the lower part of the graph. The dates of a few of the points have been labelled.

First observation is that there does not appear to be any systematic relationship between the rate of money creation and the unemployment rate. The caution here is that these are official statistics, which may have been altered to make them more palatable.

Secondly, prior to October 2008, the rate of money creation oscillated widely without any observable correlation to unemployment, which varied between about 4 and 6%. After October 2008, the unemployment rate rapidly rose to 10%, and it has been varying between 10 and 11% since.

Ergodic theory suggests that a dynamic system will visit all possible areas in state space given sufficient time. So we need to wait to see what the limits of behaviour of this dynamic system are.

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