Dust flux, Vostok ice core

Dust flux, Vostok ice core
Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Excursion in silver price (relative to gold) projected to end this month

Then it will be back to the old grind.

For the above figure I have used a simple 3 pt moving average of the ratio of the month-end prices for gold and silver. The lag is twelve months. The projected point, which is back in the green area that has largely characterized the gold-silver ratio system over the past fifteen years, is based on today's (actually yesterday's closing prices).

Assuming that the gold-silver ratio does not change before the end of the month, we will be back in the green area.

To avoid this return, we would need the gold-silver ratio to fall to about 46 by the end of this month. At the present gold price, we would need to see a silver price of about $35. Not impossible, but time is running out.

Disclosure: long silver, long gold.

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