Dust flux, Vostok ice core

Dust flux, Vostok ice core
Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Evolution of the US trade deficit in phase space

As is well known, the US has run a trade deficit since about 1970. Why this is so has been attributed to everything from the offshoring of US manufacturing to the idea that as the US dollar became the global currency, it was necessary for the US to run a trade deficit for dollars to circulate in the international setting.

We may look at this in two ways--one, the alarmist view, is that the US is unable to pay anything and is thus about to fall into poverty. The second is that the rest of the world is sending tribute to the US--which hardly seems worrying. Apart from the question of whether pieces of paper with pictures of dead presidents can be considered as payment, a critical question is whether the US trade deficit will continue to increase without limit , or will it decline going forward.

Trade deficit data for the US back to 1960 are available here. The technical picture could be interpreted as a megaphone bottom, which suggests that the trend is about to reverse.

For the reconstructed phase space, let's start by looking at the cyclicity in the trade surplus/deficit. For the first portion of the chart, there appears to be a cyclicity with a period of about five years. The period looks longer in the latter part of the graph. I have created a phase space plot using a time delay of three years.

Well, ok, I can't make out anything. I'll try detrending it and looking at it later.
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I have been experimenting with different methods of displaying probability density diagrams, including one that involves all windows viewed simultaneously. Unfortunately I haven't figured out how to display it here.

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