Dust flux, Vostok ice core

Dust flux, Vostok ice core
Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Ghana needs power . . .

. . .  desperately.

Power was out all day yesterday. It came on around 7 in the evening for just over an hour, and went out again.

Ran down all the batteries so I was just starting to charge them when power went out for the second time.

Came on again late at night, but couldn't charge batteries due to heavy lightning (plugged-in things here tend to explode when lightning strikes).

Power is on again this morning, but for how long?

A recent publication (which bandwidth is too limited for me to find) states that Ghana will produce enough power to supply its needs by 2020. Given that this is a government paper, it is vitally important to investigate its premises.

The authors of these papers tend to adjust their model parameters to suit the desired output. Yes, I understand that power plants are being built, and it is reasonable to assume that their projected capacity will be met. I will also allow their assumption that they will build out the required transmission capabilities as well.

What I don't accept is their projection of future demand. The reason for this is that since the present demand cannot be met, it is certain that it is underestimated. Likewise, the rate of growth of demand tends to be similarly underestimated. For this reason I think that their projected demand in 2020 will fall far short of the real demand, meaning that episodic blackouts, brownouts, and power sharing will continue here far into the future.

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