Dust flux, Vostok ice core

Dust flux, Vostok ice core
Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Gold demand down (or is it?)

The World Gold Council has published its report on the global demand for gold. Get yours here.

The headline number: gold demand fell by 1% in Q1 '15 to 1079.3 tonnes (y.o.y).

In the section on gold demand statistics, we see that the dollar value of gold purchased in the Q1 '15 was about 7% lower than the value of gold purchased in Q1 2014 (p. 18, tables 2 and 3).

But remember--the US dollar is a whole lot higher over that time period. How much higher? Well averaging the weekly closing price of the US dollar index for every week in the Q1 2015 gives us an average value of 95.104--the same calculation for Q1 2014 gives us 80.359. That is an 18.3% gain.

The gold price itself fell about 7% over that time (in US dollars). But non-Americans purchasing gold in Q1 of 2015 are paying over 10% more that in Q1 2014. In this context, the 1% drop in physical takes on a different meaning. No wonder foreigners aren't buying so much!

Chinese jewellery demand is down fairly significantly. The report suggests that demand for securities trading may have eaten into gold demand. I can only report that the Chinese I speak to are convinced that since gold is going down it is a bad investment.

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