This chart compares the US dollar index with the gold price over the last 12+ years. The overall effect has been one of deflation (both gold and the dollar index have risen over that period), but the effect has not been steady. Much of the deflationary "progress" has been made through cycles of inflation and disinflation, although there have been substantial periods of "pure" deflation, mainly in early 2010, late 2014 to early 2015, and the longest stretch covering nearly all of 2019 into May 2020.
The question of inflation, disinflation, deflation, etc. are not just theoretical--they potentially affect the balance sheets and investors' perception of gold and silver stocks as investments (or, perhaps, speculations). During deflation, when both the US dollar price of gold and the US dollar index are increasing, the balance sheets of non-US-based gold miners (companies with mining operations outside of the US) improve markedly. The effect is not as strong for US-based gold miners, however they do benefit from inflation. During inflation, the non-US-based gold miners don't really benefit much (from the accounting perspective), however this tends to be the time when their perception of value increases the most in the minds of investors. Since it is also likely to be a time for US operations to increase in profitability, it improves the financial conditions of the Nevada-based producers (and California, Arizona, etc.).
Also take note of the effects of deflation on silver. It isn't pretty. The switch from deflation to inflation makes puts silver in play. The important thing to remember is to leave the party when the inflation turns to disinflation or deflation, which can happen suddenly.
In May, the situation switched from deflation to inflation. That may suggest that American-based producers and silver companies are right in the sweet spot.
One feature that stands out is the "inflationary hyperloop" highlighted in gold. It represents a fairly long period of inflation followed a similar period of disinflation, the total lasting about four years. For gold and silver investors, only the first half or so was much fun. Now that we have entered into an inflationary period, are we going to experience another such loop? It seems plausible.
But there is at least one significant differences in the current inflationary run and the beginning of the inflationary hyperloop--and that is battle. Almost the entire way around the loop there was a real struggle between bear and bull forces. That struggle on the way up is important, as it tends to lead to resistance on the way back down. Now observe our current smooth inflationary stretch since May. Where are the struggles?
One approach is to assume that the current situation will mimic the inflationary loop. If so, we might get two years of fun and about $600 of price out of this. Some approaches suggest magnitude and time increase due to [central bank-fueled liquidity; higher price levels; Mars is in conjunction with Apollo; your reason here]. But the reality is that this is a dynamical system, and in state space, once the system breaks out of a mode of stability, it can move rapidly to another. The new area of stability may be nearby, or it may be far afield, but in either case, without any previous observations of its existence, its location in phase space is unknowable. This is just a roundabout way of saying we can't know how high the gold price will go (or how low the gold-silver ratio will fall) during this period of inflation.
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