Trust mislaid

I am greatly discouraged over poll numbers presented yesterday at the Washington Post in which the majority of Americans support the government's stance on espionage, provided that the effort is directed at finding terrorists. A large number (45%) agree that the government should go farther than it has already.

It makes feel very sorry for Edward Snowden, who has risked life-altering circumstances in order to bring this particular instance of the US government's abuse of power to light. It seems he needn't have bothered.

Americans have given this a ho-hum and gone back to Dancing with the Stars.

Americans are afraid that Google, Facebook, and various advertising agencies are spying on them. Yet at most these companies only want to sell them stuff (or sell their info to other companies that want to sell them stuff). Yet they trust the US government, which has an established precedent for drone-striking American citizens that have been deemed enemy combatants.

The only thing for which the US government needs information about you is for 1) collecting more taxes, 2) assessing your suitability as a drone target, 3) assessing your suitability as a rendition target, or 4) assessing the likelihood that they will be able to steal your house and all your assets due to drug offences. In the last dozen years there has been only one terrorist case that was not unambigously created as part of a sting operation by the FBI (there is room for doubt on the Boston bombing case).

You can opt-out of Google.

But you can't opt-out of government surveillance.

The mystery of Robertson screwdrivers in Ghana

Every Canadian blog eventually has to have a post about Robertson screwdrivers. We are told they are uniquely Canadian. Especially when they start showing up in Ghana.

I remember once working on an oceanographic vessel out of Bedford Institute--almost 30 years ago. Some of the (at that time analog) recording equipment had been fastened in place with Robertsons. We had to move some of the equipment, and an American colleague remarked, "We need to have some kind of a special tool to undo these."

Some years ago I was running a marine survey in Ghana. We had a variety of braces and mounts assembled here and shipped over. In the course of operations I found myself having to modify our home-made mount for the GPS, which was held together with Robertsons. I had a multi-tool, but there was one screw that had was hard to access, and impossible for the tool (the knuckle couldn't get into the access) so I was stuck unless I could find a dedicated Robertson screwdriver, which was impossible in Ghana.

Uniquely Canadian.

A few years later I needed to buy some screws at a hardware store in Accra, and ended up picking up a few packets of Robertson screws. They even had some of the screwdrivers too. But since cleaning them out that day, I have never found any at any store in Ghana.

Why did they appear in such limited numbers, only to disappear?

In checking out the new Robertson webpage, I did see one clue. It is now part of the Berkshire Hathaway empire.

But a brief market flirtation doesn't really seem like their style. My present guess is that it was some kind of Canadian government initiative--get the Robertson out there. But without any follow-through.

Whither silver, or wither silver?

Let's look at dynamics of the silver price.

For today's charts I am using the Friday PM London fixes since 2007, which can be obtained here.

This is he week-end closing price for silver over the past 6-1/2 years. Note the trough in 2009 and the spike in 2011. I'm sure we all remember those.

Next up is the reconstructed phase space using the time-delay method (previously described here and here). I actually experimented with several different lags before choosing one of six weeks, as depicted below. Choosing 12 weeks or 24 weeks does not significantly change the results.

Same time period as above.

There are three strong areas of Lyapunov stability around $13, $17,  and just above $30. The mess north of $30 can't yet be resolved as anything but noise, although my opinion could change if the price were to rise to the $40 and stay for a few months.

The price action of the last month is clearly noted. Silver has dropped out of the attractor in the $30 range. Normally, we would expect the price to fall back to at least the $17 attractor, but it is also possible for the price to revert to the $30 attractor. Time will tell.

At this point I would like to look at the fundamentals of silver to help me decide which outcome is more likely. Unfortunately there is a lot of noise and the true fundamental picture is unclear. So we are left with making a gut call. My little pile of silver at the bottom of the sea is telling me that the price will go higher. I think a drop to the $17 area is the most likely outcome--although I think such a drop will be short-lived.

To an old friend

Dear Neighbour:

I'm writing this letter to invite you over for a barbecue later this week if you have time. I know we don't talk much any more. Your house is too dark and with your guards and their dogs, it's too dangerous for me to try. Remember how we used to talk over the fence while doing the gardening or mowing the lawn? Those days are behind us. I miss them.

You've changed in the last dozen years since some boys from across town vandalized your property, killing part of your family. The neighbourhood had a great deal of sympathy for you at that time. Remember how afterwards a few of us brought over a meal for you and we had a quiet celebration of your kind spirit and remembrance of those who died.

Unfortunately, rather than opening up to us you drew inward. Worse, you plotted terrible revenge against your tormentors and caused great harm to many families (who have never been positively connected with the crime committed against your family) on the other side of town. This has earned the enmity of many of the people who once supported you; and lost the sympathy of many of your neighbours.

I remember how I often used to see you standing out on your front lawn, radio-controller in hand, while amusing the neighbourhood kids as you performed aerial stunts with your model planes. Now I never see you, but your planes are flying everywhere, over the neighbourhood and across town. Our suspicions that you had armed some of these were confirmed with the news of mysterious explosions on the other sided of town. At the last neighbourhood meeting, you insisted that they made us all safer, and ignored our general nervousness.

You have alarmed people all over town. I am sorry about the occasional acts of vandalism that still occur on your property. Of course it is unjustified, but some of it is, I am sorry to say, understandable.

Your home, which was once open and welcoming, is dark and brooding, covered with fearsome weapons, and surrounded by heavy-set guards with dead eyes. I still recall with horror the screaming of that girl down the street who tried to sell you cookies for a school fundraiser.

I was planning to deliver this in person, but the wife is worried about your model planes flying over the property and really doesn't want to be strip-searched by your security team. In any case,  I don't dare walk up to your front door to ring the doorbell. So I'm sending this by email. I hope you understand.

I would wish you good luck in your endeavours, but don't approve of them. So I'll just wish you well instead.

Sincerely,

A neighbour

Coffee broke

I was trying to nap while taking the train into town this morning when there arose a cocaphany of squawks and sputters. It sounded like a flock of chickens being murdered by a pack of dogs.

Yes, as a matter of fact, I have heard that before.

It ended with a godawful screech: "My coffee!" I couldn't see where it came from, but the emergency strip had been pushed so we were going nowhere until the transit police came to sort things out.

I don't know what happened, but coffee was spilled and the police were called. Two individuals were singled out by the transit police and interviewed afterwards. It looked like the sort of thing that would normally be settled by a duel. Coffees at five paces.

Sorry to disappoint you - no chart on coffee at this time.