Dust flux, Vostok ice core

Dust flux, Vostok ice core
Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).

Friday, October 11, 2013

The mark of regulatory failure

It isn't news that the market for junior mining companies is bad.


And we all have our reasons for it--ranging from poor performance in commodities in general to extreme and horrifying fears of a general collapse in society into barbarism. But if the latter were imminent, wouldn't we expect to see everything else performing just as badly? The rest of the market isn't great, but it isn't as awful as the junior golds.

After the Bre-X affair (portions of the Bre-X files are here), regulatory officials created a set of regulations to guide technical reports. The goal was to make the type of fraud that Bre-X represented impossible.

Unfortunately, there are still types of fraud that go on in the markets, which are not affected by the regulations.

There are good companies run by competent management, with competent geologists and good properties. Sadly, these are in the minority. There are companies with well-meaning, but incompetent management or poor properties. These are more common. They raise money, spend it properly, but lose your money. Maybe you don't feel so bad because the guys were at least trying.

Then there are the criminals. There are lots of these. The current regulatory regime has eliminated some of them--the ones that manipulated their share prices by faking their sampling results by numerous methods which need not be elaborated here.

But the regulations have done nothing to eliminate the more insidious criminals which run companies purely for the benefit of raising money through share issuances and directing the proceeds to themselves either as salaries or as private billings. Arguably, the regulations have enhanced these companies, because they provide a checklist by which diligient, but criminal, management can maximize their credibility on the markets for a minimum of exploration expense.

If your plan is to raise a whole lot of money in order to pay yourself, the blessing of Canadian market regulators officials gives you the credibility you need to keep at it. Such companies can be called "lifestyle companies"--as they exist solely to maintain the lifestyle of their management.

How did it come to this? The regulations were designed to solve a different problem--one of criminal management expressing its criminality through manipulation or misreporting geological information (although see this). As for the lifestyle companies, as long as they satisfy the various listing requirements, the regulators have plausible deniability, and the exchanges can happily collect their fees.

A lot of money came into the junior mining sector since the advent of the new regulations. A lot of money. And there has been little exploration success to show for it.

The poor performance of the junior exploration sector is a crushing indictment of the regulatory regime in the Canadian markets. The retail investor has judged the NI 43-101 regulations and they have been found wanting.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Syria and the decline

This certainly feels different from previous run-ups to war.

I don't know what's going to happen any more than you do. Certainly I am gratified to see that there is no immediate attack, but we still have miles to go.

The biggest difference I see between now and ten years ago is the immense skepticism the American people are showing towards possible action in Syria. Even the comments in the Washington Post are far more anti-war than I've ever seen them (also very anti-Kristol and anti-Krauthammer). Yes, there are still comments in favour of war--but they are a notable minority.

It is depressing to see our foreign minister express that Syria should not be given time to comply with the demand to hand over control of its chemical weapons to the international community. It's as if the Harper government wants to see an attack go ahead, even as they have not appetite to join in.

All of this gives me more hope than I've had these last few years.

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Internet at casa Mickeyman will go dark for a few days as we've exceeded our bandwidth. I'll be in the local hotspot intermittently this next while.

Friday, October 4, 2013

Should Canada and the US merge . . . (updated)

. . . like Diane Francis asks?

No.

Sure, I could use the money. But I think in her calculations she has neglected to consider the extra costs to Canadians, like having to roughly double our per capita medical expenditures. Not to mention we might have to start pulling our weight in military adventurism around the globe. We might have to close our embassy in Cuba.

There's an old song I remember hearing from way back. The words used to be on the internet years ago, but I can't find them now. Unfortunately, on my copy the first line is garbled, so I'm not sure of the wording.

There's a fine country called America don't you know,
Just take a look at your atlas, it's the one that's down below.
There's fifty states in the union and something should be done,
To forget the war of 1812 and make it fifty-one.

There'll be colour television,
Social security,
Racial segregation and the Birch Society;
You can take the fifth amendment,
You can vote for LBJ,
You can even burn your draft card when we're Canada, USA.

Now some folks think we're English, which isn't true at all;
And some t'ink we're a colony that's run by Charles de Gaulle;
But we're looking up to greater things upon the glorious day,
When the capitol of our little state is Ottawa, CA.

There'll be colour television,
Social security,
Racial segregation and the Birch Society;
You can cheer for Jimmy Hoffa,
You can join the Klan today;
You can even be a Commie when we're Canada USA.

There's a bunch of stripes and fifty stars upon the Yankee flag,
There's gonna have to be fifty one when Canada's in the bag,
But when we see the flag unfurl, we'll know we've won the fight,
We'll be just before Connecticut in the third row from the right.

There'll be colour television,
Social security,
Racial segregation and the Birch Society;
You can take the fifth amendment,
You can vote for LBJ,
You can even burn your draft card when we're Canada, USA.

We'll all be much more affluent in the Great Society,
Their buck is worth $1.10 in Canadian currency,
The economy's going to get a boost for it's very evident,
That it costs us more to feed a Queen than pay a President.

There'll be colour television,
Social security,
Racial segregation and the Birch Society;
You can cheer for Jimmy Hoffa,
You can join the Klan today;
You can even be a Commie when we're Canada USA.

There'll be no more selling prairie wheat to all the commie crew,
There'll be no more Cuban sugar--that's very naughty too,
But think of all the benefits that surely have to come
When we're citizens of a country that's got the atom bomb!

There'll be colour television,
Social security,
Racial segregation and the Birch Society;
You can take the fifth amendment,
You can vote for LBJ,
You can even burn your draft card when we're Canada, USA.

Update: Just need to update that last chorus a bit:

There'll be welfare cheques and foodstamps,
Homeland Security,
The NSA on Google
And the end of privacy,
You can take the fifth amendment,
Get Obamacare today,
You can even shoot Iraqis when we're Canada, USA!

One more time--the distinction between human- and algo-trading

The markets do not act like they once did. The trading in certain stocks is operating on time-scales so small that they cannot be in response to human thought. Not only are certain individuals able to access key information before others and so respond to news releases faster than the speed of light, but certain entities have free range to post and cancel orders on a microsecond basis, and queue-jump by shaving off (or adding on) tiny fractions of a penny from their orders.

Stocks traded by humans tend to make significant moves on a timescale of minutes to days. Even when there is a news event that radically changes the apparent value of a company, if there are only humans in the market, the move takes time to occur. Below we a couple of charts for Detour Gold (I currently have no position in this stock)


Normally, when looked at on a ms timescale, the graph is not really distinguishable from a straight line.


The little squares occur because all the price-changes I saw in the course of the day were a penny. On this scale it scarcely matters which axis is the current price and which is the lagged-price.

Once the algos get involved, the millisecond phase space plots get a lot more interesting. Some of them are works of art! Below, some plots for Century Casinos (I have no position in this one, either). Data here.



Algos playing tug-o-war.

Nice to look at, but maybe not so nice to trade against.

Remember the adage about playing poker: If you don't know who the sucker is . . .

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Arctic sea ice in phase space

Another September has passed, and with it the annual minimum extent of Arctic sea ice. This year we saw a minimum of 5.1 million sq km, which is quite a bit more than the minimum of last year.


As noted before, there is a distinct break just after 1995.


I still haven't seen anything that would lead me to reject the possibility that we are tracing out a new area of stability (hashed circle). The lag means that the state in 2014 will lie along the lower blue line (exact position will depend on next year's area) and in 2015 will lie along the higher blue line.