in coconut oil, as the weather cools.
Dust flux, Vostok ice core
Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).
Saturday, July 5, 2014
Wednesday, July 2, 2014
The changing correlation between the S&P 500 and oil
Today we investigate the relationship between oil and the broad US market, using the S&P 500 index as a proxy.
A common thought is that the two functions are inversely correlated, with the US market in danger whenever oil rises too high.
The relationship has been a complex one over the past 11 years, but the correlation is positive most of the time.
In particular, we see from 2003 until late 2007, both oil and the market rose in tandem. The only time the two records show an inverse correlation was during the windup to the financial crisis--from late 2007 to July 2008.
The collapse in both market index and oil price through the second half of 2008 shows up quite clearly. The two prices rise in tandem from early 2009 to the end of 2012.
It doesn't seem logical that the S&P should be positively correlated to oil prices--so it is more likely that both records are correlated to the same thing--inflation. But what to make of the last 18 months, in which we see an almost vertical rise in the stock market without an increase in the oil price? Is an American renaissance in the works, powered by increased American oil production? Or is it due to the much rumoured mass purchase of securities by financial institutions, powered by monetary creation? Is it being done to prevent another period of negative correlation, which might foretell another economic crisis? Stay tuned . . .
A common thought is that the two functions are inversely correlated, with the US market in danger whenever oil rises too high.
The relationship has been a complex one over the past 11 years, but the correlation is positive most of the time.
In particular, we see from 2003 until late 2007, both oil and the market rose in tandem. The only time the two records show an inverse correlation was during the windup to the financial crisis--from late 2007 to July 2008.
The collapse in both market index and oil price through the second half of 2008 shows up quite clearly. The two prices rise in tandem from early 2009 to the end of 2012.
It doesn't seem logical that the S&P should be positively correlated to oil prices--so it is more likely that both records are correlated to the same thing--inflation. But what to make of the last 18 months, in which we see an almost vertical rise in the stock market without an increase in the oil price? Is an American renaissance in the works, powered by increased American oil production? Or is it due to the much rumoured mass purchase of securities by financial institutions, powered by monetary creation? Is it being done to prevent another period of negative correlation, which might foretell another economic crisis? Stay tuned . . .
Friday, June 27, 2014
As Russia had its East Germany, so the United States has its Canada
In the bad old days of NATO and the Soviet bloc, East Germany was the snarling dog of the Communist world.
It was East Germany that had the Stasi, and the tightest control over the thoughts and actions of its people. East German athletes went the farthest in terms of steroid usage in order to bring glory to the country through athletic accomplishment.
Today, Canada is moving into that role for the United States. Where even the US is talking about engaging with Iran to formulate a response to ISIS in Iraq, and Britain is set to reopen its embassy, Canada remains opposed to talking with Iran. Canada's position with respect to Israel is now so far to the right as to be indistinguishable from the Likud.
The role of the snarling dog is to appear so unhinged as to make its "master" seem reasonable.
It was East Germany that had the Stasi, and the tightest control over the thoughts and actions of its people. East German athletes went the farthest in terms of steroid usage in order to bring glory to the country through athletic accomplishment.
Today, Canada is moving into that role for the United States. Where even the US is talking about engaging with Iran to formulate a response to ISIS in Iraq, and Britain is set to reopen its embassy, Canada remains opposed to talking with Iran. Canada's position with respect to Israel is now so far to the right as to be indistinguishable from the Likud.
The role of the snarling dog is to appear so unhinged as to make its "master" seem reasonable.
Thursday, June 19, 2014
World Gold Council discovers reasons to invest in gold
In today's astonishing publication, the WGC has announced that it has discovered that gold is poorly correlated to equities and is impacted by the business cycle differently than other commodities; consequently it may be good for something other than jewelry.
Link here.
Is there a connection with this story?
Link here.
Is there a connection with this story?
Tuesday, June 3, 2014
A friendly letter to the media
Dear BBC, WaPo, CBC, et al.
I wish to lodge a complaint. What you present is news is nothing but a lousy pack of lies.
Please don't misunderstand. I am well aware of your role in society, and understand the lying is what you do. That isn't what I am complaining about. What I am complaining about is the lousiness of your lies.
It is becoming increasingly easy to find contradictory evidence disproving your lies posted on various social media, blogs, and alternative media sites. The fact that your lies are so easily seen to be lies offends me--it makes me think you don't think very highly of my intelligence.
It wouldn't bother me that much, but to be honest, I'm worried for you. If you don't shape up, you may be retired (in the Blade Runner sense of the word).
Do try to do better. Lots of us are rooting for you.
Cheerio!
I wish to lodge a complaint. What you present is news is nothing but a lousy pack of lies.
Please don't misunderstand. I am well aware of your role in society, and understand the lying is what you do. That isn't what I am complaining about. What I am complaining about is the lousiness of your lies.
It is becoming increasingly easy to find contradictory evidence disproving your lies posted on various social media, blogs, and alternative media sites. The fact that your lies are so easily seen to be lies offends me--it makes me think you don't think very highly of my intelligence.
It wouldn't bother me that much, but to be honest, I'm worried for you. If you don't shape up, you may be retired (in the Blade Runner sense of the word).
Do try to do better. Lots of us are rooting for you.
Cheerio!
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