The Old Ways (in Zhengzhou)

Zhengzhou has an old city wall--not as impressive as the one at Xi'an. Compressed earth and loess.

The wall surrounds ruins dating from the Shang Dynasty, which all appear to have been removed to make way for a park and apartment complex.

And they still have cock fights.

Why gamble on stocks when you can gamble on roosters?

S&P 500 and oil follow-up

This could be another Hallowe'en special.

The monthly chart shows a noticeable break, caused by the breakdown in oil price. How far it will fall is anyone's guess. Probably it will take the S&P 500 down with it at some point--maybe through losses in all those oil companies that are heavily dependent on fracking and a high oil price.

Once we reach bottom though, we ought to have a pretty nice bull run in both oil and the broader market.

I can hear your objections. Someone will point out that those waves of "growth" over the past ten+ years are just the result of Fed inflation. Furthermore, that someone will say that the Fed has shot all of its bolts and they will never be able to engineer inflation again. These statements will be amplified with opinions about Fed incompetence. It's a story I've heard a lot over the last ten (and more) years. I've even voiced similar opinions myself. I've come to realize that they are competent--the reason they seem incompetent is because what they are really doing is different from what they say they are doing.

In memory of past Hallowe'en evenings

Pleasant strolls in Zhengzhou

Some pictures from northern Zhengzhou, Henan province.

This nice lake is scheduled for complete development, whereupon it will be surrounded by roads and apartment blocks. Ground-breaking hasn't started yet, but they have started to lay out the roads to the area.

The highway interchange to serve the area appears below:

The construction zone lay across my path, so I walked through. Halfway along, I met a woman pushing her baby in a stroller around all the operating heavy equipment. The policy about venturing through a construction site in China appears to be: it's okay as long as you stay out of our way and don't come crying to us if you get hurt.*

Eventually I found my way through to the completed roadway, where my pleasant stroll continued.

At the complex interchange between Beihuan Rd. and Huayuan Rd., I got turned around somehow; and instead of ending up at home, I would up at some American pub, drinking beer.

* Yes, I think that is a fine policy

The killing will continue until the morals improve

Sad news has come from Canada over the past few days--two separate attacks have killed two Canadian soldiers.

The Harper government has been quick to condemn the attacks as ISIL-inspired terrorism. Unfortunately I am unaware of any investigation that has evidence to support this assertion. It seems likely that the attacks may be characterized as terrorism, but making a definitive statement linking them to a particular foreign group seems likely to skew the result of any investigation. Will the RCMP feel obligated to present conclusions that support the Prime Minister's assertions?

Like all Canadians, I too am saddened by these attacks. But it is important that we learn the truth behind the attacks, and act in a way to reduce their future likelihood. This will probably not mean that we should deport all Muslims; or that we should make Islam illegal; both of which are suggestions I have already heard from other Canadians.

We should not be afraid to investigate the possible role of recent Canadian foreign policy in these attacks. This means that we should ignore all the cries about "blaming the victims". The victims of these attacks are named Nathan Cirillo and Patrice Vincent. Neither the Canadian government nor the Department of Foreign Affairs are victims of this attack--investigating the connection between their actions and the recent appearance of acts of terror (both planned and realized) is not blaming the victim.

We are hearing claims of "radicalization" at the hands of Islamic clerics--but this has not been demonstrated. Nowhere do we hear of the possibility of "radicalization" due to the feelings of hopelessness and despair over injustices committed in our names in the Middle East.

There are many Canadians who are angry at the evolution of Canadian foreign policy, from "honest broker" to whatever it is that we are now. The vast majority of them will never raise their hand in anger against another. Their frustration has mounted, as their voices have gone unheard, and ever-greater acts of aggression are committed overseas in their name.

All over the world, I have seen the same thing. As long as there remains the possibility of peaceful change, peace will reign. But if the system is so heavily skewed that there is no possibility that your opinions will be heard, people eventually turn to violence.

Canada is about to embark on another mission overseas. Canadian soldiers will be placed in harm's way yet again. Some of them may become victims of attacks either here or overseas. The radicalization, one by one, of previously peaceful Canadians at home will also continue.

The killing will continue until the morals improve.