Dust flux, Vostok ice core

Dust flux, Vostok ice core
Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).

Saturday, November 29, 2014

The love trade is going in circles

It has been years since I looked at diamond prices--the same as true for cocoa.

Here in China, Single's Day has just passed--and it may be time to start thinking about Valentine's Day. With this in mind, let's consider diamonds and chocolate--two of the enduring commodities in the love trade.

Below I present a chart comparing the cocoa price (US$/tonne) against the RAPI index for 1-ct diamonds (or at least my best guess of it given the information at hand).

Since 2010, we have seen a big cycle, with our current position not far from where we started, with chocolate being relatively expensive, and diamonds relatively cheap*.

The cocoa price seems to be rising of late. There's no civil war in Cote d'Ivoire--this time, the culprit is the long-term lack of investment in cocoa plantations, combined with a fungus that has already killed about 30% of this year's global production.

Because of the coming chocolate shortage, I've been stocking up.

It's slow going though. The local chocolate is pretty bad, and the foreign stuff only comes in a bit at a time.

* As always, you should not view this as investment advice. Especially if you are buying for a special someone.

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