A global pandemic is too dangerous to leave the experts in charge, part 1

As I write I have been in some form of lockdown for about two months, having resisted it for the first couple of weeks. I kept commuting into the office until the very end of March, before retreating to Newmarket and hanging out there for the past couple of months.

I still have had to use public transit to commute to my dialysis centre. The lengthy commute increases my risk level, but I am fortunate to still be well. 

Today's comment is about pandemic control. I haven't seen a lot of it, apart from the shutdowns. Unfortunately, we have almost no information allowing us to see the effects the lockdown has had on the spread of the virus, because there has been no organized process of random sampling. 

Random sampling is the only way for us to get a handle on the true number of viral cases. For instance, in Ontario, the government is reporting on sample results that are now beginning to reach about 20,000 per day. At the same time, the number of new cases verified through testing is generally between 300 and 400 each day. Given that the sampling numbers are typically around 16-17,000 per day, we may be looking at an infection rate of a little over 2%, which if reflective of the population at large would suggest about 350,000 cases in Ontario--far more than the number of cases that has been identified by testing.

However, we can't extrapolate reliably, because none of the samples are random--they are self-selected for either being at high risk, or because they may have symptoms. It would be useful for us to know the true incidence among the population, because if the number of cases is indeed around 350,000, and the hospital load and death rate have been as we have observed, then this virus is a lot less dangerous than supposed. 

We also have no idea of the true trend in the general infection rate--information that would help us assess the effectiveness of the lockdown. In the absence of random sampling, such information will not be forthcoming. What the Ontario Ministry of Health needs are mobile sampling teams that can carry out a randomized sampling program, possibly by going to pre-selected addresses, or possibly some other scheme (a lot of thought has already gone in to taking random samples of Ontario's population--but not by the government).

This is one of the first things that anyone would learn when becoming involved in setting public policy (or marketing public policy). The experts do not appear to have proposed such a program. One has to wonder why. 

Journal of the Plague Year - Let the Sun Shine in, the Sun Shine in

It's good for you. Not just for the Vitamin D.

Journal of the Plague Year - part 1: Chinese ex-girlfriend oracle says "Situation cloudy"

Here I am, watching myself for Covid-19 symptoms, having braved the crowds of PDAC earlier in the month. I only went on the Sunday, but there were plenty of opportunities for mingling with crowds, particularly during the reception at the Peruvian exhibit, the Argentinian exhibit, the Chilean exhibit, and the Brasilien exhibit (not to mention repeatedly visiting their coffee machine, which was on the fritz). The crowds at those events were quite close.

News of course came a few days later that someone who had been at the convention later showed symptoms--and a Kinross exec claims to have gotten the virus there. Seeing as there were over 20,000 people there, I'm sure that won't be the end of it.

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Roadblock in one of Jiaozuo's many villages

I contacted a couple of ex-gfs in China to ask about the progress of covid-19. It isn't easy to get accurate information otherwise, as I never know whether or not to believe news about China that is reported here, but I also don't completely believe Xinhua news or equivalents. Somewhere in there, there may be some truth.

And last night, a third ex-gf contacted me to ask how the virus was proceeding in Canada. She even asked if I had masks! I told her no, we don't believe in those here.

Anyway: Ex#1 is originally from the Wuhan area, and is currently working in Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province. She had been in her village last month, but it never seemed to be completely isolated from the rest of Hubei province. She tells me she is back at work in Zhengzhou now, and when I asked about activity in businesses around her, she told me that as far as she can tell, businesses and institutions are nearly back to normal.

 

There she is - at left, on her bicycle in Wuhan about three years ago - at right, how the government sees her.

All the stories floating around over here, about hundreds of thousands of people left to die in Wuhan apartments; massive numbers of corpses burned in crematoria around the country; even the story about the disease either originating in a Chinese bioweapon lab or an American lab and inflicted on the Chinese--should all be rejected as fake. In her case, if there were huge numbers of deaths in Wuhan, she would probably know it through relatives and relatives of friends. As for the combustion signals, remember that the Chinese have had to destroy nearly a hundred million pigs due to pig ebola

The other two exes are having different experiences. They are both from a city near Zhengzhou called Jiaozuo--but are both from different villages. Both of them are still trapped in their respective villages. One of them is from the village with all the roadblocks that I posted on twitter last month. She manages a restaurant in Zhengzhou, where I imagine business isn't too good. She did remind me that I should drop in at the restaurant upon my return to Zhengzhou. Then she immediately posted our conversation on social media and boasted about her English. The second one tells me she doesn't know what is happening. There is a rumour that there are still two people in her village with the virus, and the whole place is locked down. She doesn't know when she will return to Zhengzhou.

So, depending on where you are in China, things are close to normal, or not.

PS - I just checked, and the top picture I posted on Feb. 5. So poor Pan Pan has been trapped in her village for six weeks! I would add that her village is not the most interesting village in China