Stone by stone

One of the things I like about China is the way the Chinese use stone, even in modern-day life. Most bollards, for instance, a carved from stone. I suspect this is only possible due to the low value of labour.

Of course, there is a long history of using stone in China.

The Great Wall, seen from the air.

The Great Wall of China cannot be seen from the moon. It can be seen from commercial flights if you care to look.

It snakes across hills, built on what looks like the most difficult path possible, cresting hills and ridges in the parklands north of Beijing.

The most famous tourist sites have been extensively rebuilt. Some of them are wide enough for twelve men to march abreast. Many other places are falling apart, or have only been partially refurbished. I think these are more interesting.

Jinshanling is a less-visited section of the wall. Of course, travelling there in late fall also helps. In any case, there were few visitors other than the dozen or so on our day trip.

The terrain is rugged, with many steep climbs. Still, it must have been worse actually carrying the blocks of stone used to build the wall up to the construction site.

The Mongol side of the wall. Those are not solifluction terraces.

The wall was a barrier as well as a road. An army could move along the wall, easily keeping pace with an enemy army on the outside trying to outflank it.

As we walk along the wall, we start to reach places where repairs have not kept up with time.

 

The watchtower in the distance was the goal of our hike.

Along this stretch the climb was so steep it was tempting to go on all fours. Here was also where I really pondered the difficulty of carrying the stones while the wall was being built. I have been assured that they used donkeys.

At lunch I sat at a table with several others on the tour, who happened to be from Singapore. We were telling each other about ourselves, when one of them stopped me and told me I had a nice voice, and should go back with her to Singapore where she would get me a radio show. I told her that Singapore had too many of my ex-wife's relatives.

Dengue in Singapore in 2016

The number of dengue cases in Singapore this year fell from the relatively high numbers at the beginning of the year.

Good news--my kids are over there right now.

Dengue breaks out, and cools in Singapore

Last year was a relatively quiet year for dengue fever in Singapore, after the rather active years of 2013 and 2014. Ocean cooling may have been one factor, allowing the authorities anti-mosquito campaigns to make a little headway.

Late last year, the numbers began to increase, with a peak being hit early this year.

This year's initial peak is higher than any other in our data series, causing the Singaporean government to forecast in excess of 30,000 cases for 2016.

The general consensus on the cause of the spike in dengue cases has been the recent El Niño event, which normally elevates temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. By some accounts, this event has been one of the strongest on record (at least going by elevated temperatures). By some measures, the 1997-8 event was stronger. Now that the El Niño seems to be weakening, temperatures and the number of dengue cases should fall, at least until the normal seasonal warming period starts.

El Niño usually leads to warming in the Pacific ocean, with increased precipitation in the east, and reduced precipitation in the west. However, individual events have their own characteristics, and this last event differs from previous events in magnitude of warming in the central Pacific, the general lack of enhanced precipitation in western North America. Dengue outbreaks in the Phillipines and in Taiwan in late 2015 were blamed on the current El Niño event (Wendel, 2015).

Clusters of dengue cases are primarily in the eastern part of the island. Data from here, accessed on April 12.

Many of the clusters appear to be at the edges of recently developed land. These lands are those that are expected to be most marginal (i.e., low-lying, wet) and represent good breeding grounds for mosquitos. These lands have been developed recently to accommodate the rapid growth in population over the past sixteen years (according to the Singapore Department of Statistics, population has risen from 4.0 million in 2000 to over 5.5 million in 2016).

Comparison of Google Earth imagery over the past fifteen years in some of the clusters may provide some insight into the relationship between development, land use, and dengue clusters.

First up--Pas Siris. I chose this area as this is where I stayed with my family the last time I was in Singapore (just over three years ago).

Both images cover Pasir Ris and part of Tampines. The upper image was captured on February 8, 2005, and the lower image on February 25, 2015. The three transparent yellow polygons on the lower image represent identified dengue clusters as of April 12, 2016.

There has been some development during the ten years between the two images. But the most important development happened in the area beginning in 1983, before which the area was a low-lying area punctuated by small villages and kampongs.

Unfortunately, the area is so ordinary (cookie cutter buildings), that the only photos I can find of the place were of parakeets hiding in a tree outside my window at night.

One area where dengue clusters seem particularly abundant is Serangoon.

The top image is as the neighbourhood looked in 2008, whereas the lower image is the current imagery over the same area, with dengue clusters (as of April 12, 2016) superimposed on the image. If you were to locate the imagery next week or next month, you will probably find the clusters will have moved, but you will still find plenty in the area.

Very little development has occurred in the interim between the two pictures. The area is another low-lying area (although this is pretty common in Singapore). The name of the neighbourhood is proposed to have come from the name of a bird common to the swamps of the area. There are still a number of green spaces in the area, so perhaps there is a problem with local drainage.

If I were to change anything about my original thesis, that the dengue outbreaks combined natural warming with recent development of marginal (swampy) land in order to settle large numbers of immigrants, it would be to remove the word "recent". Most of Singapore was swampy, and swampy is as swampy does.

References:

Wendel, J., 2015. Dengue fever epidemics linked with El Nino, study says. Eos, 96, doi: 10.1029/2015EO037169. Published October 9, 2015.

Operation Spectrum

In the last few days, I have gotten a number of hits on this post. It seems that the Marxist Conspiracy arrests of 1987 have been a topic of much discussion in the wake of the death of Lee Kuan Yew.

In my blog posting I gave the impression that the entire government was in favour of detaining the so-called Conspirators without trial. In this article, we learn that at least one Cabinet Minister resigned in protest of the government's actions. I applaud his courage.

More on the "Marxist Conspiracy" can be found here.

The peak of dengue cases for 2014 in Singapore has passed

. . . but the residual numbers of cases still greatly exceed what we observed only two years ago (data from here).

Overall, it looks like the total cases this year will be a little lower than last year, but still much higher than in 2011 and 2012.

Apart from the main peak starting and finishing a few weeks earlier than last year, I see nothing to change the following conclusion (from here).

The increasing incidence of dengue in Singapore looks to be a reflection of government policy, which requires greater numbers of people to be stationed in close contact with mosquitos. And given that the Singapore government is pushing to increase the population by another million or so, we can only expect the trend of dengue infections to increase.

Quickie update on dengue in Singapore

After a slow start to the year, the dengue numbers have really taken off this year.

The most current information available on the status of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation suggests it is higher (warmer) than last year, which should facilitate an increase in dengue cases over last year.

Keep swatting!

Cycles of dengue in Singapore

The last time I posted on this, the numbers afflicted were in decline, during the the normal seasonal drop-off. I assumed the number of cases would return to about 100 per week.

Weekly dengue cases in Singapore, 2011-2014. Adapted from here.

I am a little surprised to find that the outbreak is still raging. The rate of new cases is running at more than double this time last year, which was already a record. At first glance it looks like something new might be happening.

Only three years of records is too short to support such a hypothesis. Can we do better?

Dengue in Singapore, 1966-2005. DHF - Dengue hemorrhagic fever; 

DF - Dengue fever (only reported from 1977). Screen cap from here.

Given the population of Singapore in 2005 (4.4 million), the number of cases per 100k would give us an estimate of 14,300 cases that year. The number of cases of dengue reported in 2013 was over 22,000, and given the population estimated to be about 5.4 million, that would equate to over 400 cases per 100,000, which would be off the top of the above graph.

There are two things we note on the above graph: first is the extreme variability of the numbers of cases of dengue fever over a cycle length of approximately 8 years; secondly, the incidence of cases appears to be increasing since the late 1980s. The cycle lows are generally before 1985, around 1993, 2000, and (from the recent data) perhaps around 2011.

When I see cyclicity in epidemiological data, I look for climate oscillations. For the Pacific, we have the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), which alternately warms and cools the western Pacific (and many other areas, as well as changing the distribution of rainfall).

Schematic of PDO and effects on sea surface temperature from here.

During the positive phase of the PDO, we see the sea surface temperature around Singapore is a little warmer than usual. A common epidemiological argument is that warmer temperatures favour mosquitos, so if the PDO is influencing dengue cases, then we would expect to see more cases during the positive phase, and fewer cases during the negative phase. So let's combine the record from 1966 with the PDO oscillations over the same interval.

Although there is some agreement between the curves, particularly over the last 20 years, the small peak in the early 1990s corresponds with generally cooler surface temperatures--and the incidence of dengue was very low during the warm spell from the late 70s through to the 1980s.

One factor may be overturn of the strain of dengue encountered--for instance, the dominant strain in 2007 was different than that of 2005 (pdf). The strain in 2005 was similarly different from the dominant strain previously.

But I think the major factor in the general increase is the changing culture in Singapore. Look at the population growth of the place.

A snip from Google.

Despite only producing 1.2 babies per woman, the population of Singapore has grown by over a million in the last seven years. Obviously, this has been through immigration.

Singaporeans will no doubt complain that these newcomers don't share their cultural values--in particular, their cultural values regarding cleanliness and public order. I know, I married one. In Singaporean culture, the vacuum cleaner is not a labour-saving device, it is a device that allows you to use the same amount of labour to make the house cleaner than before.

When we were there last year, we stayed with one of my wife's relatives. They were having troubles with their new neighbours, who had recently immigrated from China, and were in the habit of tossing used diapers and tampons off their balcony.

But the reason may be more basic than that.

Image of Singapore.

That snaking body of water near the top of the image is the straits of Johor, which separates Singapore from Malaysia.

Singapore is a small place. To cram in more people requires dense construction in increasingly marginal lands, which are mainly in the north and western portions of the island, and on reclaimed land, which is primarily on the southern margin. Common to all of these marginal lands is that they tend to be wet and low-lying.

The population graph has a notably higher slope (population growth) starting in the late 1980s. I assume this is the beginnings of the major influx of immigrants. Also note that this period correlates to the interval where dengue fever outbreaks begin on the chart of dengue vs the PDO. Even though conditions at the time favoured cooling, if you bring in a lot of people (a few of whom have dengue) and place them in mosquito-infested swampland, you soon have a lot of people with dengue.

The increasing incidence of dengue in Singapore looks to be a reflection of government policy, which requires greater numbers of people to be stationed in close contact with mosquitos. And given that the Singapore government is pushing to increase the population by another million or so, we can only expect the trend of dengue infections to increase.

Update on dengue in Singapore

After peaking in late June, the number of cases has fallen by more than half, to about 340 last week. Total number of cases this year is about 13,500.

Singapore faces worst dengue fever outbreak in its history (updated)

On our last trip to Singapore, my wife insisted that the mosquitoes there were not a concern. This is no longer the case. Singapore is in the throes of its worst outbreak of dengue fever ever. No explanation has been offered for the size of the outbreak, although there have been comments that the virus has a greater resistance to treatment than normal.

I'm not convinced--in my experience with tropical disease outbreaks in Africa and other places, it is almost always caused by higher than normal rainfall. In Singapore it may be compounded by the large number of construction projects underway.

Dengue is caused by a virus which is spread by mosquitoes. There is no vaccine, so you avoid dengue by avoiding mosquito bites.

Last year Singapore experienced a little over 4,500 cases of dengue fever (which seems like an awful lot to me). That would be less than one case per thousand population. This year, the number is already over 10,000, with over 800 new cases this week alone. They have not yet reached the time of year where the number of cases normally peaks. There have been two deaths.

Dengue cases this year. From here.

It's hard to make sense of the distribution of cases. The Paisir Ris cluster is an area of apartment blocks, but there is a lot of green space between the buildings and a fairly large series of connected parks.

Downtown shots, not Pasir Ris. Couldn't find any good shots of Pasir Ris except inside the apartment.

Updated June 26

Numbers still growing, with the peak still likely a few weeks away. Graphics source.

Another about gold investing in Singapore

Some new kind of fraud has arisen in Singapore to replace The Gold Guarantee, which ceased operations suddenly in January (in the middle of the night).

I received a phone call from a family acquaintance in Singapore. He told me his son had just invested quite a bit of money in a company (the name of which I have withheld for reasons that will become clear) and would I mind looking into it? Never mind the question about doing due diligence after forking over your money.

I looked up the company, which turned out to be a respectable company dealing in technical machinery. I saw that they had been in business for many years, had many long-term customers, and shipped equipment all over the world. So I called this acquaintance back and told him that to a first glance (without going through company finances) the investment seemed legitimate.

He was relieved. He told me that his son had bought a sum of gold from this company, but had elected to receive certificates with an interest payment of 2% per month. This is exactly the same business model as the Gold Guarantee used (and its various predecessors). I told him that the company in question does not deal in gold. I advised him that his son should try to track down the fellow he gave his money to and get it back. Unfortunately, it appears they are out of luck.

Even though the Gold Guarantee is gone, same style of fraud remains ongoing.

The only way to buy gold is to buy physical. And for heaven's sake, do some research on the price before you buy. The Gold Guarantee's website quoted a price for gold nearly 50% above spot, then said they would sell it to you at a discount.

The Gold Guarantee blowing up in Singapore? update Feb 3

Today's reminder of the importance of taking physical delivery of gold at the best price possible comes from Singapore.

The Gold Guarantee is (was?) a company based in Singapore allowing "investments" in gold. They had two separate schemes. One allowed victims to take delivery of their gold, but at an approximately 30% premium,  albeit with a monthly repayment of a small portion of the premium for as long as the gold was held (and the company remained solvent) and an option for the company to buy back the gold at a price related to the spot price. The other scheme offered a gold certificate and a higher monthly payout.

The monthly payouts amounted to over 20% p.a. I am unaware of any method by which a company could sustain such payouts through normal business practices. Were I aware of such a business, I would invest in it.

Today's Straits Times reports (unfortunately this story is not in the free online section) that the owner of the company is unreachable, and the offices have been shuttered since about January 9. The last communication most shareholders had was an email sent on January 8, announcing a merger between The Gold Guarantee and a similar company called Asia Pacific Bullion.

Customers have been dropping by the office and showing up at the CEO's home since he vanished, but to no avail. Some are facing losses of hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The latest gold price reported on the company's website is dated January 7. What appears to be an apologist blog posting for the company is dated January 3.

Here is a link to a discussion group which includes some unfortunates who bought gold from this company within the last few months. Note the advice they have received.

The scheme looks like a carbon-copy of the Genneva scam which fell apart in October.

Avoid certificates, and if you take delivery of gold, verify the spot price (it should be part of your due diligence).

Update:

Here is an article on the topic by a local financial blogger.

Update February 3

Channel news Asia reports that authorities have sized The Gold Guarantee's assets.

New scandals in gold investments occur in Singapore all the time.

Book review: Beyond the Blue Gate

The interrogation of persons engaged in security threats and subversive conspiracies is not an invitation to a dinner, as Mao said of revolutions. It is a very serious matter. No person would implicate himself if he can help it. It is therefore necessary to break down the defences which a suspect automatically builds around himself. To discuss ISD's [Internal Security Department] methods of interrogation is to risk reducing their effectiveness. The government makes no apology for their effectiveness in uncovering the truth without torture. And they have been varied and improved from time to time.

                                   - Chin Fook Leong, in Far Eastern Economic Review, Nov. 12, 1987

Beyond the Blue Gate: Recollections of a Political Prisoner describes the arrest, interrogation, and imprisonment of the author, Teo Soh Lung, for "taking part in a Marxist conspiracy" (according to the Internal Security Department). The book also deals with the arrests of her "co-conspirators", who appear to have been arrested for making statements critical of legislation passed by the government headed by Lee Kwan Yew.

The book should be viewed as a cautionary tale--about government agencies with virtually unlimited power and no oversight.

In the mid 1980's, according to the government, Singapore's democracy was under threat of imminent violent overthrow by Marxists bent on creating a Communist government. In support, on 21 May 1987, some two dozen individuals (including the author) were arrested in connection with this conspiracy. Not a single gun, bullet, knife, or slingshot was presented as evidence--however, as we have seen in many places since, once security directorates have made such a claim, they will go to extraordinary lengths to cover up their errors. If that means that a few dozen individuals lose their reputations and businesses, the government views that as preferable to its own loss of prestige.

Ironically, the People's Action Party (which was and is the ruling party in Singapore) originally began as a socialist party allied with pro-communist trade unions.

The loss of reputation is a grievous blow, particularly when there is no chance the government will admit to a mistake. The author describes how, during her arrest, she saw one of her neighbours standing outside, but the moment they made eye contact, the neighbour disappeared inside. It is a scene reminiscent of Solzhenitsyn (though unfortunately not as well written)--the arrest in the wee hours of the morning; the neighbours pretending not to know you. And during the interrogations, the dropped hints of arrest or punishment of your friends and family--and the long days and weeks in isolation, never knowing.

I recall dimly hearing of these events at the time, and smugly thinking that such things could never happen in any North American country. I viewed it as evidence that Singapore was not a "real" democracy.

Reading this book in light of the War on Terror, and the prospects for unlimited detention (or even assassination) on the basis of an assertion by an executive authority has broken my earlier smugness. Instead there is a mounting horror of what is happening in what I used to think were real democracies.

They, too, do not apologize for the effectiveness of their interrogations.

What a slowing world economy looks like

From Singapore.

On the beach enjoying the view.

Empty container ships floating idly offshore, two days ago. While watching, one of the ships moved a little. So there is some activity.

My in-laws tell me they have never seen it like this.

It isn't that the port is extremely busy (idle loading facilities--are those containers empty?). View from a revolving restaurant atop grain silos (advertised as the only one in the world!)

End of 2012

It's already the New Year in Singapore.

Rather than show you fireworks, I've put in here a picture of the rare talipot palm, currently in bloom at the Orchard Gardens here. This tree is about 80 years old. It blooms once in its life (now), then dies.

Unfortunately for me, this has been a gruelling year, both from a professional standpoint and most definitely from an investing standpoint. However, here's hoping the coming year will be better. Given the storms building on the horizon, for those of us working and investing in the precious metals field, it will either be a lot better or a lot worse.

The most-viewed article on this blog (in pageviews, according to Google Analytics) was the big winner last year about Atlantis.

The most-viewed article written this year was the one on scale invariance in avalanches, forest fires and default cascades, which no doubt got a boost by appearing on Zerohedge (where it has far more pageviews than it does here).

Happy New Year all! I have no predictions but intend to still be here.

Merry Christmas all

Merry Christmas to all. Back to business soon.

Not exactly what I'm accustomed to. But warm.

Moneylending is tough in Singapore

According to a story in one of the local papers here in Singapore, people can be jailed indefinitely without trial for "illegal moneylending", whatever that is. Asking for clarification from the locals wasn't reassuring--their understanding is that it meant lending money without formal permission. I guess the banks don't like competition.

Update: Jan. 3 - I forgot to clarify that the article actually says "jailed indefinitely pending trial". So there will be a trial--someday.