Dust flux, Vostok ice core

Dust flux, Vostok ice core
Two dimensional phase space reconstruction of dust flux from the Vostok core over the period 186-4 ka using the time derivative method. Dust flux on the x-axis, rate of change is on the y-axis. From Gipp (2001).
Showing posts with label US election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US election. Show all posts

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Virtue signalling in a cynical age

A recent story on Yahoo Finance tells us that the popular perception of Starbucks has fallen since the company announced that it would hire 10,000 refugees over the next five years. The action is intended as a response to President Trump's attempt to block the entry into the US of refugees from selected countries.

According to the chart below, consumer perception levels have fallen by about 2/3 since the day of the announcement (orange arrow).



(Yougov/Business Insider)

It may be tempting to consider this a case of blatant racism encouraged by the election of President Trump. But I don't think so. I do think the phenomenon is related to Trump's election, but not in such an obvious way.

Virtue signalling doesn't work as a marketing strategy anymore. In fact, this understates the problem--virtue signalling (expressing moral values through a conspicuous action) is almost entirely viewed negatively. The world has grown cynical, and it is generally the fault of elites of all types, who have shown us time and time again that the more they play up their high morals, the worse their morals truly are.

Years ago, virtue signalling worked--companies would make an announcement about paying a fair price to third-world wage slaves for coffee, and people would ascribe a higher moral character to that company. Any company that has has exercised virtuous behaviour consistently over a number of years still benefits from it, but apparently any new attempt to signal virtue is viewed cynically as merely a tool to win favour.

In the old world, virtue signalling meant, "I am a good person." In the cynical world, it means, "I am a good person (but we both know that's not really true)."

More than twenty years ago, when I was teaching geology at the University of Toronto, it was common for students in environmental science to come visit me and tell me that they always recycled and composted. They were trying to sound like good people, but I perceived it as a lame attempt to suck up to the professor. I usually gave them a non-commital answer like, "That's nice. (Now go away, please)."

I prefer vice signalling. Once when one of my students told me about her prodigious feats of recycling, I told her that I actually encouraged people to create as much garbage as possible, because it meant more work for geologists, both in mining and in landfill siting.

In the old world, vice signalling meant, "I am a bad person." In the cynical world, it means, "I am a bad person (but we both know that's not really true)."

In the cynical world, the attempt by Starbucks to make themselves look good had the opposite effect. They might have been better off with a different marketing campaign. "At Starbucks, we believe in screwing over third-world coffee-pickers so you can have a great-tasting cup of coffee at an unbeatable price." Except the unbeatable price part doesn't fit Starbuck's positioning. But maybe some other coffee company could try it--it would be a killer campaign.

It is the cynical world, more than anything else, that is responsible for the election of President Trump. Virtue is simply out of favour. If Clinton had run her campaign twenty years ago, when the world was less cynical, she would probably have won. But in the cynical world, too many people thought, "she has to be a real crook to be trying this hard to look good."

For his part, Trump seems to have understood the value of vice signalling. Perhaps it was due to his businesses (for all their ups and downs, he always did market himself pretty well), whereas poor doomed Hillary and her advisors hoped that Americans still admired virtue. In the cynical world, virtue has fallen out of style. The worse Trump made himself look, the better people thought of him.

Is this the end for virtue? I think we have reached a watershed moment, where the world is so cynical, it has come to believe the opposite of everything we once held true. But the world tends to move in cycles, and I can't help but think we have stretched the elastic as far as it will go in this direction.

After the Trump presidency (however long it lasts), I think people will appreciate virtue again.

Monday, November 28, 2016

Dr. Copper strikes back

Some time ago I compared the price of copper to an old man falling slowly down the stairs.

Not anymore.


The current move marks a major change. Whether this is supply driven or demand driven is unclear to this author. So I can't say whether a new developing country (India, or perhaps the US?) has appeared, or whether China has re-ignited its building boom. I do note that subway line 2 has now opened in Zhengzhou, and several more are under construction. The same is true in Changsha, and undoubtedly in other cities across China.

Let's see what I mean.

I have used reconstructed state space portraits as a way of highlighting changes in dynamics in systems, particularly in pricing. One of the easiest graphs to plot is an absolute measure against its rate of change. Below we see the gold-copper ratio plotted against its rate of change since the start of 2015.


Because I calculate the rate of change over a five-week period, and plot it in the middle--it means the most recent point on the graph reflects the ratio about two weeks ago. Currently, the gold-copper ratio is about 450.

Essentially, the graph shows two metastable states--one where the gold/copper ratio is between 400 and 500, and one with the ratio between 550 and 650. The transition from one state to the other occurred in January this year, prompting this.

Well, if we assume that a lower gold/copper ratio means the perception of increased demand, and given the timing of the breakout relative to the recent election, maybe the market is taking Mr. Trump's remarks about a major infrastructure build-out in the US seriously.

Saturday, May 21, 2016

The US election . . ..

. . . has taken a remarkable turn. The sudden impetus of Trump has led me to a working hypothesis in which the Deep State has decided to abruptly vomit the neocons out of the political system.

Consider--the neocons supported Rubio, but they probably could have lived with just about any GOP candidate except for Donald Trump. Although Trump said a lot of alarming things, he did give the impression that he would talk to "enemies" of America, and in fact, seemed to be of the opinion that whatever deals might be made would have to benefit both sides (as they would in business). Since neocon ideology is centered on the notion that no countries other than America can have legitimate national interests that conflict with the goals of America, any reasonable agreement with Russia, or China, or Iran, etc. would be dismissed as appeasement. The neocons clearly had no future in a Trump administration. Once it became clear that Trump was likely to win the Republican nomination, noted neocons like Robert Kagan began to abandon ship and jump to the Clinton campaign.

Such is the state of politics in the US--at least to an outsider. It is so polarized that it is difficult for me to imagine that they would maintain any credibility jumping from one party to another. If Clinton does win, things will probably still work out for Kagan and crew.

But the tenor of the press seems to have changed in the last few weeks. Outside of the Washington Post, newspaper articles are starting to look at the possibility of a Trump presidency, and stories about weakness on the Clinton side are also appearing. To me it looks like Trump has come to some sort of accommodation with the Deep State, and Clinton may be on her way out. Taking the neocons with her.

This should at last finish them off. Future Democratic contenders will be far less likely to burden themselves with Kagan and company, and I wouldn't think the Republicans will take them back after their betrayal.

17 Contenders - the story of the 2016 election (stills from 14 Blades)

Our story begins as Donald Trump and sixteen other contenders vie to become the Republican presidential candidate.



No quarter is asked or given.


Trump begins to attack.

Another early favourite is Ted Cruz, whose campaign slogan "Trust Ted" seemed a little oxymoronic.



Trump dispatches most of his fellow Republicans using nothing but chicken bones and hair gel.


Jeb Bush was only slightly more trouble.




Ted Cruz finally falls before Trump's flashing blade.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is the reported front-runner for the Democratic Party. Early on, it becomes clear that her main contender is Bernie Sanders.



"I can't wait 'til this is all over and I can finally stop dressing like Jack Sparrow."

She begins destroying her competition, culminating in her defeat of Sanders.







At last we reach the main event.


Electoral college members prepare to vote.


Clinton: A girl like me is fortunate indeed to run for President against someone like you.


Trump: Most of my opponents thought they were lucky. But their luck ran out . . .


Property damage ensues.









Clinton thinks she has the upper hand. But does she?

Stay tuned.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Freudian slips on Aljazeera

Some observations on the election from a commentator on Aljazeera (on TV here in Accra).

"Clearly a majority of voting Americans felt that Barack Obama diseas . . . deserved a second term as President."

"Obama's victory was sealed as he won several key backwa . . . battleground states."